| This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly |  | Authors: Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher: Princeton University Press
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Rating:  41 reviews
Media: Hardcover
Edition: 1St Edition
Pages: 496
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.9
Dimensions (in): 9.2 x 6.2 x 1.7
ISBN: 0691142165
Dewey Decimal Number: 338.542
EAN: 9780691142166
Publication Date: September 11, 2009
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| • | ISBN13: 9780691142166 | | • | Condition: NEW | | • | Notes: Brand New from Publisher. No Remainder Mark. |
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Product Description
Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. This book proves that premise wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned. Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts--as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur. An important book that will affect policy discussions for a long time to come, This Time Is Different exposes centuries of financial missteps.
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Showing reviews 1-5 of 41
 Prodigious and full of gallows humor October 3, 2009
Tidewater
212 out of 228 found this review helpful
Rogoff and Reinhart, two very substantive (and, I might add, earnest) economists, have produced a prodigious work which will be read and studied for years. They have gathered mountains of data from primary and secondary sources and reduced it to dozens of charts and graphs, a heroic work in its own right. Their intention, God bless 'em, is to lay out the follies that have led to economic/financial crises over the last eight centuries. Their findings: humans have not learned from past mistakes. The title is ironic and is worthy of Peter DeVries.
The authors say it is "almost comical" that no governments reveal their true financial condition today, nor have they done so in the past. The lack of transparency and the shenanigans that go on behind the curtains contribute, of course, to the human suffering that ensues in crisis after crisis.
One needs to find this book comical if one is not to slip into a permanent depression about the utter failure of national leaders to address shortcomings in national domestic and foreign economic policies in order to avoid systemic crises. No one has, from the 13th century onward, anywhere in the world.
The authors persist in saying that they hope their monumental effort will lead to an examination by policymakers of past mistakes and help them avoid future mistakes. I say, "Good luck with that." In my opinion, this book ranks with the complete works of Shakespeare in illuminating the human condition. Or Bruegel, or Beethoven. It will not bring about change, but it will entertain in a deeply satisfying way.
Explaining the Second Great Depresson and Its Potential Aftermath October 24, 2009
S. F. Woit (Lexington, MA USA)
58 out of 61 found this review helpful
Be prepared for a very sobering and complete review of eight centuries of financial crises, complete with charts and graphs that even those who fell asleep in the Macro 101 in college should be able to understand. This book is worth reading in its entirety, but chapters 13 to 17, in which the authors draw important lessons from the 800 years of financial folly for the present course of the "Second Great Contraction of 2007" and its aftermath, make this volume well worth the price.
Also, be prepared for some sobering analysis of the effectiveness of central banks and government policymakers in addressing economic crisis (yes, regrettably, still not very effective even with the benefit of 800 years of history and analysis to draw on). You will learn why This Time is Ultimately Not That Different in so many ways. Ken Rogoff worked at both the Fed and the IMF so he is in a unique position to evaluate the global scope of the 2nd Great Depression in modern history, and it is the very global nature of this event that leads him to conclude that the aftermath with be long-lasting and have profound effects on the global economy for many years to come.
While documenting the fiscal policy response to the Second Great Contraction of 2007, including the massive global government bailouts in the banking sector, Rogoff points out that the size and long-term impact of these measures, while profound, may be dwarfed by the effects on the U.S. national deficit and national debt of reduced Federal tax revenues during the global downturn. With such high levels of debt and limited means to reduce government expenditures to compensate for sharp reductions in tax revenues, the ultimate effect may be a debasing of the U.S. dollar by the Fed, producing a period of increased inflation or stagflation.
The earlier chapters describing periods of hyperinflation, bank and sovereign defaults throughout history are fascinating, leading up to the payoff in the final chapters, in which one can draw one's own conclusions about what course this most recent crisis will take and just as importantly, how policymakers are liable to miscalculate once again. The Federal money-printing presses around the world are in high gear once again, more automated and sophisticated than ancient regal sovereigns clipping coins and extracting gold and silver from the royal coinage to finance their realms.
Proving once again that history doesn't always repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
A must read October 12, 2009
Maria B. Sbrancia
48 out of 55 found this review helpful
As Martin Wolf from Financial Times has written... "A MASTERPIECE"
One of the most interesting things about this books is that it combines a very rigorous research on the topic while keeping it accessible to a large audience. The book is self-contained, with definitions provided along the way, which makes it easy for people with no previous knowledge in economics to enjoy and understand it.
The authors also put together a database without precedents in the area which not only makes their statements much stronger, but also makes a great contribution to the field.
A very timely reminder that no country is "too big to fail" October 30, 2009
VS (USA)
15 out of 17 found this review helpful
When one reads the book, the first impression is the incredible amount of work the authors put into collecting the most comprehensive, as of today, dataset on financial crises and key economic variables for not only developed but also developing countries. This dataset will most definitely be at the heart of future empirical work on financial crises.
It will discipline economists to strive to build more realistic models that are able to reproduce the systematic trends and fluctuations of economic variables around the period of financial crises. As the authors admit to be surprised themselves, not only such systematic relationships abound across time but also across developed and developing countries.
The book is an important reminder that it is easy to live under the illusion that "this time is different" and that developed countries have outgrown severe financial crises. However, as the current financial crisis reminded us the more we lie to ourselves, the less vigilant we are as to potential worst case scenarios.
Finally, speaking of vigilance, the book is not only a thorough description of the past but also hints at a very serious problem many countries including the US would most likely face in the future; namely, the issuance of unsustainable levels of government debt which could have tremendous negative medium and long run effects at a global level.
Sobering study of fiscal failures November 17, 2009
Rolf Dobelli (Switzerland)
7 out of 8 found this review helpful
Every so often, experts sucker people into bidding up the prices of stocks or real estate because they announce that the economy has fundamentally changed. As the aftermath of the real estate bubble illustrates, the basics of economics don't really change, no matter what fantasies people come to believe. Economics professors Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff present a thorough historical and statistical tour of financial hubris through the centuries, a postmortem that will make you wonder how anyone ever believed "this time is different." The staid tone, formulas, charts and somewhat confusing organization make this fascinating history challenging to absorb. Yet, the content, which sweeps ambitiously and carefully across centuries and countries, rewards the persistent reader with many insights and gems, like the nation-by-nation appendix of fiscal history low points. getAbstract recommends this analytical overview to history buffs, investors, managers and policy makers who seek perspective on "financial folly."
Showing reviews 1-5 of 41
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